A Week With World War III
Early Saturday morning on March 1st 2028 the United States and Israel bombed Iran and started World War III. I guess it's still debatable whether this is truly World War III but in my opinion it is pretty clear this is a global conflict and it doesn't seem as though it will end anytime soon.
There are reports that Iran has been using Chinese missile technology, with even more advanced capabilities laying in wait that both Iran and China are eager to see in action. Iran is using Russian intelligence to target American and Israeli targets. This dynamic largely replicates the role of the United States and Europe in the Ukrainian conflict for over 2 years now. The great powers are already deeply involved in multiple fronts around the world and the opening of the war in Iran clearly threatens to bring them in direct conflict in a way people seem to be waiting for before they dub this World War III.
Whatever you want to call it, it is clearly a global conflict.
The U.S. and Israel have bombed Iran over 3,000 times in the last week and have pummeled Tehran, targeting civilians, military assets, and oil infrastructure. Iran's longtime leader Ayatollah Khamenei has been killed in the bombings and left the future of Iran's leadership in flux, but one thing that is clear is that Khamenei was considerably more moderate than the hard liners set to take power. Add to the mix that they are now fighting for their lives quite literally and it is a recipe for escalation. Which is exactly what we are seeing.
Israel has escalated the slow moving conflict they've been fighting with Lebanon for years. Iran has bombed Israel, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain, and Qatar. They have also shut down the Strait of Hurmoz and threatened violence against any ships that try to pass. In response the United States has promised to guide ships through the Strait in order to save face and keep oil prices from spiraling out of control. The fact that this has become a significant regional conflict is undeniable and the stakes for the players in the region are incredibly high. Israel specifically sees the conflict as an opportunity to secure hegemony in the region and if that comes at the expense of everyone else in the area, all the better.
Israeli foreign policy advisor Daniel Levy told Al Jazeera, "My sense is that Israel has no real interest in smooth regime change. I think most [Israeli leaders] regard that as a kind of fairytale, though that's not something Netanyahu and allies might be ready to admit publicly." He added: "Israel's more interested in regime and state collapse. They want Iran to implode, and if the spillover from that takes in Iraq, the Gulf and much of the region, so much the better."
As commentators such as Tucker Carlson have pointed out, the war is currently bankrolled and politically supported by the United States and that support will eventually come with a great cost. American misadventures in the Middle East have already weakened American power significantly and in no small way helped usher in the multi-polar world we now live in wherein post World War II American power has been thoroughly degraded and is slowly being replaced by China, Russia, and the rest of the BRICS alliance.
The longer this goes on the more motivation there is for both Israel and the BRICS country to further the conflict and cement their increasing power. American leadership has seemingly learned nothing from Afghanistan and Iraq and are burning down whatever is left of the American Century and it is not really even clear why. Iran obviously is not an existential threat, the economic turmoil far outweighs potential gain, and outside of furthering the goals of Israel, the war serves in the long term to ostracize almost every ally the United States has. So what is driving this push to war?
Allegedly the Military Religious Freedom Foundation has received over 200+ complaints from active duty military personnel across 40 units and 30 military installations stating that their unit commanders have called the conflict part of "God's plan" with one specifically saying Donald Trump was "anointed by Jesus to light the signal fire in Iran to cause Armageddon and mark his return to Earth." Constitutional issues aside, this clearly shows the depth with which far right evangelical Christian Zionism ideology has infected the U.S. military leaders and American leadership broadly.
Like it or not the United States killed a significant religious figure in Shia Islam and has aligned itself with a hard line ethnonationalist government in Benjamin Nehtanyau's Israel and itself has seemingly adopted a religious ideology to justify the conflict as well. Not only is it fair to dub the conflict World War III in my opinion, it also seems reasonable to declare it a holy war of sorts between the three Abrahamic religions. Both the global reach and ideological tenor of the conflict make it difficult to see it ending any time soon. Obviously those in power profit off the war to the tune of billions of dollars just as they always do. Not to mention the fact that it further dilutes the Epstein story and solidifies power for the very class of people who maybe feel, for the first time ever, it slipping away.
Adding to these dynamics is the military capabilities of the powers involved. The United States seemingly started the conflict flat footed, both by bombing Iran with depleted interceptor stock piles, forcing them to take missile batteries from other allies such as Ukraine and South Korea and by seemingly failing to consider the implications in the oil market, wherein adversaries like Russia are making out like bandits and the United States is left with dwindling strategic reserves as oil nears $100 a barrel with the potential to go as high as $150-200 according to some analysts.
Iran for their part has a stock pile representative of a country that has been preparing for this for decades. Both their missiles and drones are far more replaceable than American interceptors and it isn't at all clear the United States can establish air superiority as easily as they did in countries like Iraq and Afghanistan. This leaves the United States with limited options if the conflict continues to escalate, which by all accounts seems very likely. Boots on the ground would be a disaster due to Iran's mountainous territory and decades of preparation. Unfortunately the limited options increase the likelihood of something like small scale, or more significant, nuclear strikes, or something equally disastrous.
There are mixed signals coming out of the United States as to whether there is appetite for a longstanding conflict, but Israel has made it clear that their goal is regional hegemony and that will not come easily. For China, Russia, and the BRICs States this presents an opportunity to further degrade American power and cement a multi-polar world where they are calling the shots. It seems clear that nobody involved really has any meaningful reason to back down, other than to save innocent lives, but that obviously isn't a big motivation for any of these people.
World War III is here. Whether people admit it right now or not it will be abundantly clear soon. Hopefully some day this seems like an overreaction to a truly scary moment, but as for now, a week after the bombing started, it doesn't seem like it.
